Precursory effects in the subionospheric VLF signals for the Kobe earthquake

Physics

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Scientific paper

The subionospheric VLF Omega signal transmitted from Tsushima, Japan (geographic coordinates: 34°37'N, 129°27'E) was continuously received at Inubo (35°42'N, 140°52'E). This data was analyzed during an 8-month period centered on the great Hyogo-ken Nambu (Kobe) earthquake, Mg=7.2 on 17 January 1995, the epicenter located inside of Fresnel zone of the VLF path. To clarify the possible effect, we developed the special TT (terminator time) method of data processing, which was useful for our short VLF path (distance ~1000 km). We discovered a statistically significant change of TT characteristics, which began a few days before the main shock and probably continued a few weeks after it as a transient oscillation with period ~10 days. By simple modelling, it was shown that TT changes could be caused by the decrease of the VLF reflection height by ~2 km. The possible underlying mechanisms of the effect are not defined; however, an increase of the regular electric field due to radon exhalation before the earthquake or an intensification of planetary waves by seismically influenced atmospheric turbulence might be considered.

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