Physics
Scientific paper
Apr 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3207309r&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 7, CiteID L07309
Physics
3
Seismology: Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction (1217, 1242), Seismology: Earthquake Dynamics (1242), Tectonophysics: Stresses: Crust And Lithosphere, Tectonophysics: Dynamics And Mechanics Of Faulting (8004)
Scientific paper
A power-law like acceleration of seismic moment release (AMR) has been proposed as a precursor to large earthquakes. Because of problems with real-world data, we have used a synthetic seismicity model of 256 interacting faults embedded in a 3-D elastic half-space to search for periods of AMR preceding the largest events (Mw ~ 7.1). In only 5 of 18 cases does the AMR model fit the data significantly better than a linear moment release, and then only weakly so. This proportion, or higher, occurs in 8% of 1000 randomized catalogs. We conclude that either AMR is unlikely to be a common precursor, or that factors contributing to the AMR pattern in the real world are missing from the synthetic model.
Johnston Steven
Robinson Russell
Vere-Jones David
Zhou Shiyong
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