Pre-seismic crustal deformation caused by an underthrusting oceanic plate, in eastern Hokkaido, Japan

Physics

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Scientific paper

Eastern Hokkaido is being considered as one of the prime candidates for a future great earthquake in Japan. Geodetic work and seismological data suggest that the continental plate is being compressed and dragged down into the asthenosphere by the underthrusting Pacific plate. A quantitative examination of this idea was carried out by an application of the finite-element method to a static-field problem of crustal deformation. The effect of heterogeneous medium with Poisson's ratio differing from 0.25 is significant. An inverse problem was solved by applying a quadratic programming method to the observed vertical displacement. A model, which assumes a nearly uniform tangential displacement along the interface of the oceanic and continental lithospheres down to a depth of 100 km, explains a gravity-change as well as the general features of crustal deformation observed in eastern Hokkaido. The displacement rate is estimated to be 2.7 cm/year. It indicates that a rebound of the continental lithosphere now brings about a thrust-type earthquake whose reverse slip is comparable to that estimated for great shallow earthquakes along the Kuril trench. A possibility of aseismic rebound is suggested at the lower part of the interface.

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