Power-law random behaviour of seismic reflectivity in boreholes and its relationship to crustal deformation models

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Scientific paper

There is good evidence for the fractal nature of some fault systems, both from field observations and the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes. Recently, two models, with fundamentally different dynamics, have been employed to explain seismicity: low-order, non-linear slider block models have successfully explained activity on part of the San Andreas fault system and in the Nankai trough, while high-dimensional self-organised-critical cellular automaton models convincingly reproduce the Gutenberg-Richter frequency magnitude relationship. Output variables from these two models fall, respectively, into two distinct data classes, chaotic (deterministic) and random. Using a predictability algorithm which can distinguish between random and chaotic datasets, we examine the distribution class of in-situ fractures (as inferred from borehole seismic reflectivity logs) in three chalk layers off the south coast of Ireland. We find that fractures are distributed in a non-deterministic manner, consistent with self-organised-critical dynamics. Therefore, we may infer that deterministic seismicity should not occur on structures over the scale range covered by the logs, at least in the end-member case where the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes is controlled by the fractal distribution of faults.

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