Power law decay in model predictability skill

Details Power law decay in model predictability skill Power law decay in model predictability skill

Aug 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002georl..29o..38c&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 29, Issue 15, pp. 38-1, CiteID 1748, DOI 10.1029/2002GL014891

Physics

Geophysics

3

Oceanography: General: Ocean Prediction, Mathematical Geophysics: Modeling, Oceanography: Physical: General Circulation, Oceanography: Physical: Currents

Scientific paper

Ocean predictability skill is investigated using a Gulf of Mexico nowcast/forecast model. Power law scaling is found in the mean square error of displacement between drifting buoy and model trajectories (both at 50 m depth). The probability density function of the model valid prediction period (VPP) is asymmetric with a long and broad tail on the higher value side, which suggests long-term predictability. The calculations demonstrate that the long-term (extreme long such as 50-60 day) predictability is not an "outlier" and shares the same statistical properties as the short-term predictions.

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