Poissonian and negative binomial modelling of earthquake time series in the Aegean area

Physics

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Scientific paper

The time distribution of mainshocks listed in 25 data sets, covering several magnitude classes, time intervals and seismotectonic segments of the Aegean area, has been tested against the Poisson and negative binomial (Pascal) theoretical models. In each χ2 test we make the null hypothesis of fit by a Poisson or Pascal distribution at the 5% and 1% significance levels. In each test the counting interval is non-arbitrarily selected as equal to the mean return period, Tm, of earthquakes of magnitude equal to or larger than the minimum magnitude in the earthquake sample. Values of Tm have been calculated from magnitude-frequency relationships determined by linear regression analysis. Twenty-two earthquake data sets are successfully modelled by the Poisson process at both the 5% and 1% levels. In contrast, only six sets are successfully modelled by the Pascal distribution. The results clearly indicate that the occurrence of earthquake mainshocks in the Aegean is stationary and random with respect to time regardless of the segment, time interval and magnitude class considered. A short review of earlier similar studies shows that contradictory results were obtained, which may be the result of several methodological problems. The most important problem seems to be the arbitrary selection of counting intervals when tests are performed. The degree of crustal heterogeneity, which varies from place to place, may provide a physical basis for explanation of earthquake time modelling and for the contradictions in earlier results.

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