Piecewise linear fitting and trend changing points of climate parameters

Details Piecewise linear fitting and trend changing points of climate parameters Piecewise linear fitting and trend changing points of climate parameters

Jan 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004georl..3102207t&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 2, CiteID L02207

Physics

Geophysics

19

Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620), Mathematical Geophysics: General Or Miscellaneous

Scientific paper

Finding an overall linear trend is a common method in scientific studies. It is almost a requirement when one intends to study variability. Nevertheless, when dealing with long climate temporal series, fitting a straight line only seldom has a relevant meaning. This paper proposes and describes a new methodology for finding overall trends, and, simultaneously, for computing a new set of climate parameters: the breakpoints between periods with significantly different trends. The proposed methodology uses a least-squares approach to compute the best continuous set of straight lines that fit a given time series, subject to a number of constraints on the minimum distance between breakpoints and on the minimum trend change at each breakpoint. The method is tested with three climate time series.

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