Phenomenon of local `seismic reversal' before strong earthquakes

Details Phenomenon of local `seismic reversal' before strong earthquakes Phenomenon of local `seismic reversal' before strong earthquakes

Mar 1999

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1999pepi..111..215s&link_type=abstract

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 111, Issue 3-4, p. 215-227.

Physics

7

Scientific paper

We explore here the following hypothetical phenomenon: the territorial distribution of low-magnitude seismicity is reversed within several months prior to a strong earthquake in the area, surrounding its source; the diameter of this area is on the order of 100 km. This phenomenon is investigated for the Lesser Antilles and southern California. On that basis, we suggest a hypothetical earthquake prediction algorithm to be tested by advance prediction. Retrospective application of the algorithm and the first three years of advance prediction in Lesser Antilles give encouraging results. In comparison with well-known intermediate-term prediction algorithms M8, CN, and Mendocino Scenario, the SR algorithm gives smaller time-space areas of the alarm. It has a serious disadvantage, however; the catalogue should be complete for a longer period of time and for smaller magnitudes, than are required in CN and M8.

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