Performance of the earthquake prediction algorithm CN in 22 regions of the world

Details Performance of the earthquake prediction algorithm CN in 22 regions of the world Performance of the earthquake prediction algorithm CN in 22 regions of the world

Mar 1999

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1999pepi..111..207r&link_type=abstract

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 111, Issue 3-4, p. 207-213.

Physics

8

Scientific paper

We evaluate the performance of the intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithm CN in 22 regions of the world. The choice of regions was defined by accessibility and quality of earthquake catalogs. Prediction is completely reproducible because the parameters of the algorithm were defined and published in advance. Total results of the tests are as follows: 26% of the time of alarms and 11 out of 24 predicted earthquakes (46%) did occur. The total error of prediction may be characterized by the sum R of total duration of alarms and the rate of failures to predict. We obtained R=0.26+(1-0.46)=0.8. This is two times higher than for retrospective prediction in California. Statistical significance of predictions is 91% so far; it will exceed 96% if the quality of prediction would remain the same for the next few years.

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