Performance of interplanetary shock prediction models: STOA and ISPM

Details Performance of interplanetary shock prediction models: STOA and ISPM Performance of interplanetary shock prediction models: STOA and ISPM

Sep 2000

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2000jastp..62.1265s&link_type=abstract

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 62, Issue 14, p. 1265-1274.

Physics

32

Scientific paper

The shock time of arrival (STOA) model and the interplanetary shock propagation model (ISPM) give predictions of the time of arrival and strength of solar-initiated interplanetary shocks. This paper presents the first operational predictions made of interplanetary shocks that follow solar events. The time interval of this study was February 1997-March 1999 (the rise of Solar Cycle 23). The results are presented in contingency-table form (whether or not a shock was predicted and//or observed) and also as the time differences (errors) between the predicted and observed shock arrivals. These results are compared to the accuracies that would be obtained using a constant, representative value (Rule of Thumb or R-T) for the transit time. The results show the percentage of successful predictions to within an accuracy of 12 h of shocks for the STOA, ISPM and R-T are 53, 58, and 33%, respectively. The corresponding root mean square (rms) errors of the shock arrival times are 15.0, 15.1 and 14.8 h. Note that the rms heavily weights outlying points, so although only 3 of the ISPM-predictions were off by more than 12 h, the ISPM rms is worse than that for STOA and R-T models; both of which had prediction errors >|12|h for eight events. Statistics presented in this paper not only show the capabilities of these models, but also allow for comparison to future shock-arrival forecasting models. These results may be considered as reference metrics in evaluating forecasting skill. The relationship of the interplanetary shocks to geomagnetic activity is also briefly considered.

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