Parametric uncertainty effects on aerosol radiative forcing

Details Parametric uncertainty effects on aerosol radiative forcing Parametric uncertainty effects on aerosol radiative forcing

Aug 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3615707h&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 15, CiteID L15707

Physics

3

Geochemistry: Composition Of The Moon (3275), Geochemistry: Composition Of The Moon (0345, 4801, 4906), Geochemistry: Composition Of The Moon, Geochemistry: Composition Of The Moon (1626, 4928), Geochemistry: Composition Of The Moon

Scientific paper

Among the known radiative forcings, the fourth IPCC assessment report estimates the aerosol radiative forcing to harbor the widest range of uncertainty extending from -1.8 to -0.3 W/m2. The IPCC estimates focus mainly on structural uncertainties, including uncertainties in aerosol sources. Here, we study the uncertainty of the sulfate aerosol radiative forcing due to parametric uncertainty in a state-of-the-art general circulation model (GCM). Numerical experiments were carried out by perturbing seven cloud parameters in the model. We find that the uncertainty due to a single one of these parameters can be as large as 0.5 W/m2, and the uncertainty due to combinations of these parameters can reach more than 1 W/m2. These numbers should be compared with the sulfate aerosol forcing of -1.9 W/m2 for the year 2000, obtained using the default values of the parameters. The uncertainty results from a high sensitivity of cloud optical properties to aerosol concentrations, which can be amplified by changing cloud parameter setting.

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