Oscillatory modes of extended Nile River records (A.D. 622-1922)

Details Oscillatory modes of extended Nile River records (A.D. 622-1922) Oscillatory modes of extended Nile River records (A.D. 622-1922)

May 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3210702k&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 10, CiteID L10702

Physics

Geophysics

15

Hydrology: Floods, Mathematical Geophysics: Time Series Analysis (1872, 4277, 4475), Oceanography: General: Climate And Interannual Variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 3309, 4513)

Scientific paper

The historical records of the low- and high-water levels of the Nile River are among the longest climatic records that have near-annual resolution. There are few gaps in the first part of the records (A.D. 622-1470) and larger gaps later (A.D. 1471-1922). We apply advanced spectral methods, Singular-Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and the Multi-Taper Method (MTM), to fill the gaps and to locate interannual and interdecadal periodicities. The gap filling uses a novel, iterative version of SSA. Our analysis reveals several statistically significant features of the records: a nonlinear, data-adaptive trend that includes a 256-year cycle, a quasi-quadriennial (4.2-year) and a quasi-biennial (2.2-year) mode, as well as additional periodicities of 64, 19, 12, and, most strikingly, 7 years. The quasi-quadriennial and quasi-biennial modes support the long-established connection between the Nile River discharge and the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. The longest periods might be of astronomical origin. The 7-year periodicity, possibly related to the biblical cycle of lean and fat years, seems to be due to North Atlantic influences.

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