Physics – Physics and Society
Scientific paper
2006-09-13
Physics
Physics and Society
17 pages, 9 color figures. Full text was reviewed. Correlation on percentage of votes was added
Scientific paper
Analysis of vote distributions using current tools in statistical physics is of increasing interest. While data considered for physics studies are subject to a careful understanding of the error sources, however such analysis is almost absent in studies of voting process. We analyze the statistical properties of vote records, paying particular attention to correlations in real time and the distribution of errors. We use records which appeared in real time of the elections for president, deputies and senators in Mexico in 2006. The real-time signal does not appear in a random way, since it does not come from a random variable. Several self-consistency tests are applied to the records showing a mixed error distribution, but the sum of errors is around 50% in all cases (president, deputy and senator elections). Distribution of votes in all cases is obtained for all the parties. Parties and candidates with few votes, annulled votes and non-registered candidates follow a power law distribution, and the corporate party follows a daisy model distribution. Parties and candidates with many votes show a mixed behavior. Thus we show that the election, as a measurement process, has a statistical error larger than the difference between the two main presidential candidates. This result means that formally, under statistical criteria, the electoral process is not conclusive.
Baez G.
Hernández-Saldaña H.
Mendez-Sanchez R. A.
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