Physics
Scientific paper
Sep 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003esasp.535..367k&link_type=abstract
In: Solar variability as an input to the Earth's environment. International Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS) Symposium, 23 - 28 June 2
Physics
Sunspot Numbers, El Nino
Scientific paper
The possible correlation between sunspot number and El Niño/La Nina was investigated. The SOI data was used and selected according to El Niño/La Nina criteria. Calculation was done for several length of delay in the selected SOI data. Using 50 years data, the strongest anti correlation, with coefficient -0.26, occur at 27-month delay. The delay and the peak of sunspot number in 2000 were used to predict the appearance of El Niño phenomena in 2002. The accuracy of the prediction was quite good. When historic data before 1950 was included, the strongest anti correlation coefficient is -0.192 at 34-month delay, whereas using the last 30 years of data, it becomes -0.389 at 34-months delay. Parabolic fitting conclude that 31 months is the most probable delay. All of the results suggest that El Niño cannot be totally independent on solar activities. These results provide an additional hope for El Niño prediction long before it happen.
Dupe Zadrach
Herdiwidjaja Dhani
Irfan Hakim M.
Kunjaya Chatief
Radiman Iratius
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