On the magnitude of the 11-year radiocarbon cycle

Physics

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Scientific paper

Radiocarbon and stable carbon isotope analyses of annual tree rings for the 15-yr period from A.D. 1940 through 1954 do not confirm the existence of an 11-yr cyclical change in the 14C activity of atmospheric CO2 having a 30‰ amplitude (peak to trough). Our results are in accord with predictions based upon the relationship between radiocarbon production and solar activity. Specifically, we find a ca. 3‰ amplitude variation during the 11-yr solar cycle that reflects the attenuation of the radiocarbon fluctuations by the atmosphere acting as a low pass filter. The minimum and maximum of the radiocarbon and solar cycles are inversely related with radiocarbon lagging by about 2 years. A ca. 5‰ increase between A.D. 1952 and A.D. 1954 is an expected result of nuclear weapon tests. Although our results are in qualitative agreement with theoretical expectation, measurement errors do not allow precise determination of the relatively small amplitude of the atmospheric radiocarbon variation due to the 11-yr solar cycle.

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