Observed Intra-seasonal Monthly Oscillations in the Middle Atmosphere, and Model Predictions

Physics

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3300 Atmospheric Processes, 3332 Mesospheric Dynamics, 3334 Middle Atmosphere Dynamics (0341, 0342), 3349 Polar Meteorology, 3367 Theoretical Modeling

Scientific paper

In the zonal-mean, intra-seasonal oscillations with periods around 2 months have been observed in mesospheric wind and temperature measurements. Such variations are seen also in the polar mesospheric clouds that are sensitive to temperature variations. In the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the waves propagating north/south generate monthly meridional wind oscillations, which in turn produce corresponding temperature variations due to adiabatic heating and cooling. With the winds converging onto the Polar Regions, the largest variations tend to be generated at high latitudes. The computed temperature amplitudes of the monthly oscillations are close to 10 K in the Polar Regions of the upper mesosphere. An analysis of zonal-mean CPC (NCEP) temperature data shows that relatively large monthly oscillations are also evident in the stratosphere. Analyzing data for the years 1996 to 2006, we find in the spectra distinct signatures of oscillations with periods between 1.7 and 3 months. In agreement with the NSM, these spectral features are induced by non- linear interactions involving the annual and semi-annual variations. A synthesis of the data shows that the monthly temperature oscillations vary with season and from year to year. And with statistical confidence levels exceeding 90%, the inferred NCEP zonal-mean temperature amplitudes are around 5 K in the lower stratosphere at high latitudes.

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