Non-linear Response of foF2 to solar activity and the Resulting Impacts on Derived Trends.

Physics

Scientific paper

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2400 Ionosphere (6929), 2443 Midlatitude Ionosphere, 2447 Modeling And Forecasting, 2499 General Or Miscellaneous

Scientific paper

Trends in the foF2 layer may offer clear indications of climate change or give insight into the impact of the solar cycle on the lower atmosphere. For both inquiries, the influence of the solar cycle on the foF2 data needs to be characterized appropriately. Years with higher solar activity result in higher foF2. However, detailed investigation shows that the response of foF2 can be notably non-linear with both positive and negative second derivatives observed in data. These results are qualitatively independent of solar proxy used. The implications of these results are large for the trends derived using the data with possible false trends and false uncertainties on the trends if the non-linearity is not appropriately included in the trend detection techniques.

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