Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
May 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3510404p&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 10, CiteID L10404
Mathematics
Logic
18
Hydrology: Floods, Hydrology: Hydrometeorology, Hydrology: Modeling, Atmospheric Processes: General Or Miscellaneous, Hydrology: Estimation And Forecasting
Scientific paper
Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ``THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble'' (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in October 2007. Results illustrate that awareness for this case of flooding could have been raised as early as 8 days before the event and how the subsequent forecasts provide increasing insight into the range of possible flood conditions. This first assessment of one flood event illustrates the potential value of the TIGGE archive and the grand-ensembles approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods.
Bartholmes Jens
Buizza Roberto
Cloke Hannah L.
de Roo Ad
Pappenberger Florian
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