Physics
Scientific paper
May 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3309704d&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 9, CiteID L09704
Physics
31
Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408), Atmospheric Processes: Precipitation (1854), Atmospheric Processes: Synoptic-Scale Meteorology, Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Meteorology
Scientific paper
The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.
Donald Alexis
Maia Aline de H. N.
Meinke Holger
Power Brendan
Ribbe Joachim
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