Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Aug 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3315707f&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 15, CiteID L15707
Physics
Geophysics
3
Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Hydrology: Drought, Hydrology: Hydroclimatology, Hydrology: Soil Moisture, Mathematical Geophysics: Spectral Analysis (3205, 3280)
Scientific paper
A strong statistically significant spectral peak with a frequency of 7-8 years is computed for tree-ring reconstructed summer PDSI averaged at continental and regional scales over North America for the period 1645-1990. A similar, though non-significant spectral peak is computed for instrumental summer PDSI averaged over North America for the shorter period from 1900-1990. The winter NAO index (1781-2002) has a very strong spectral signature at this same 7-8 year sub-decadal frequency and is coherent with summer PDSI across a broad sector of the central U.S. Composite analyses confirm a PDSI response to extremes of the NAO over the central U.S., with drought prevalent during negative extremes, and wetness during positive extremes. The winter NAO index leads summer PDSI and a contingency table analysis indicates that extrema in the winter NAO index may have modest forecast value for the following spring-summer moisture regimes over the central U.S.
Cleaveland Malcolm K.
Cook Edward R.
Fye Falko K.
Stahle David W.
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