Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean

Details Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean

Jul 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011georl..3814701d&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38, Issue 14, CiteID L14701

Physics

1

Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Cyclones, Oceanography: General: Ocean Observing Systems, Oceanography: General: Ocean Predictability And Prediction (3238, 4315), Natural Hazards: Climate Impact (1630, 1637, 1807, 8408)

Scientific paper

Using idealised model experiments we show that the tropical Atlantic main hurricane development region (MDR) is potentially one of the most predictable regions for atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind shear on multi-year timescales. Similarly we also find predictability for the number of tropical storms and the position of the inter-tropical convergence zone. Further experiments that withhold data in different parts of the ocean identify the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre as the key region for driving the skill in the model MDR. This further highlights the importance of observing the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean for initialising future decadal predictions.

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