Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times

Details Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times

Jul 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002pepi..131..173w&link_type=abstract

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 131, Issue 2, p. 173-184.

Physics

10

Scientific paper

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, TL, or equivalently maxima in local probability, PL, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the /M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped TL (PL) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the TL (PL) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped TL (PL) separately for the top 15km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting TL- and PL-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with /M>=6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with TL <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short TL map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of TL calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1664436