Physics – Physics and Society
Scientific paper
2005-08-18
Physics
Physics and Society
8 pages, 5 figures
Scientific paper
This paper reports results of a network theory approach to the study of the United States patent system. We model the patent citation network as a discrete time, discrete space stochastic dynamic system. From data on more than 2 million patents and their citations, we extract an attractiveness function, $A(k,l)$, which determines the likelihood that a patent will be cited. $A(k,l)$ is approximately separable into a product of a function $A_k(k)$ and a function $A_l(l)$, where $k$ is the number of citations already received (in-degree) and $l$ is the age measured in patent number units. $A_l(l)$ displays a peak at low $l$ and a long power law tail, suggesting that some patented technologies have very long-term effects. $A_k(k)$ exhibits super-linear preferential attachment. The preferential attachment exponent has been increasing since 1991, suggesting that patent citations are increasingly concentrated on a relatively small number of patents. The overall average probability that a new patent will be cited by a given patent has increased slightly during the same period. We discuss some possible implications of our results for patent policy.
Csardi Gabor
Erdi Peter
Strandburg Katherine J.
Tobochnik Jan
Zalanyi Laszlo
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