Model evaluation of the year-to-year variability in an 11-year sunspot cycle

Details Model evaluation of the year-to-year variability in an 11-year sunspot cycle Model evaluation of the year-to-year variability in an 11-year sunspot cycle

Oct 1991

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1991angeo...9..696p&link_type=abstract

Annales Geophysicae (ISSN 0939-4176), vol. 9, Oct. 1991, p. 696-702.

Physics

4

Annual Variations, Autoregressive Processes, Sunspot Cycle, Time Series Analysis, Analysis Of Variance, Prediction Analysis Techniques

Scientific paper

The peak values of the 11-year sunspot cycles constitute a 'sunspot envelope', with a cyclic trend of about 80 years. This paper evaluates the variability (and hence predictability) of an 11-year sunspot cycle over different portions of this envelope. It is shown that the year-to-year fluctuations in a sunspot cycle may be described by a Yule autoregressive process. Useful predictions of the smoothed sunspot numbers one year in advance are thereby possible. The prediction basis in this statistical model approach is an average sunspot cycle, averaged over three cycles, separately at different portions of the sunspot envelope. By a variance analysis, the smoothed sunspot numbers in this prediction scheme are shown to be roughly equivalent to 12-month running averaged sunspot numbers. The predictions made by the present model are found to be satisfactory during the decay phase (but not in the growth or peak phase) of an 11-year sunspot cycle, over different portions of the sunspot envelope. It probably implies that the sunspot envelope does not follow the peaks of sunspot numbers adequately with an 80-year period.

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