Model estimations of possible climatic changes in 21st century at different scenarios of solar and volcanic activities and anthropogenic impact

Details Model estimations of possible climatic changes in 21st century at different scenarios of solar and volcanic activities and anthropogenic impact Model estimations of possible climatic changes in 21st century at different scenarios of solar and volcanic activities and anthropogenic impact

Aug 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008cosre..46..354m&link_type=abstract

Cosmic Research, Volume 46, Issue 4, pp.354-357

Physics

1

92.70.Qr, 96.60.Ub, 92.60.Ry

Scientific paper

We have made estimations of climatic changes in the 21st century at different scenarios of changes in the solar and volcanic activities using ensemble calculations with the help of a three-dimensional climatic model taking the carbon cycle into account. This model was developed in the Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences. An ensemble of scenarios is used for possible changes of the solar radiation flux in the 21st century, based on different methods of extrapolation of the data for the period 1610 2000. Along with this, different scenarios of volcanic activity in the 21st century are used. The results of thus made calculations are indicative of a rather small role played by the solar activity variations in changes of the global mean annual near-surface temperature in the 21st century as compared to the expected anthropogenic impact. Model changes of the global near-surface temperature in the 21st century (possible variations of the solar radiation and volcanic activity included) are characterized by a general increase determined in the main by anthropogenic SRES scenarios.

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