Mixed hierarchical model of seismicity: scaling and prediction

Details Mixed hierarchical model of seismicity: scaling and prediction Mixed hierarchical model of seismicity: scaling and prediction

Mar 1999

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1999pepi..111..295s&link_type=abstract

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 111, Issue 3-4, p. 295-303.

Physics

4

Scientific paper

We consider a hierarchical system which is a mixture of elements of different strength. We investigate the scaling properties of this system, varying the proportion in which the elements are mixed. Four kinds of behavior are possible in the system: stability, catastrophe, unstable and stable scale invariance. The heterogeneity of the mixture in the former two cases leads to a linear form of the magnitude-frequency relation with different slopes. Stable scale invariance is specified by a unit slope of the magnitude-frequency relation, it is associated with the self-organized criticality (SOC) and may be realized only if the heterogeneity is high enough. Predictability of strong events for all kinds of system behavior is discussed. It is shown that variations of the slope and form of the magnitude-frequency relation predict the increasing probability of strong events. The role of the total activity variations in the prediction of strong events is described for the SOC case.

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