Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties

Details Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties

2011-05-25

arxiv.org/abs/1105.5152v2

JHEP 1109:039,2011

Physics

High Energy Physics

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology

28 pages, 5 figures. Language modified in order to make it more 'bayesian'. No change in results. Version published in JHEP

Scientific paper

10.1007/JHEP09(2011)039

We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to uncertainty estimates of perturbative series. We analyse the assumptions which are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale variations. We then formulate a Bayesian model that, given equivalent initial hypotheses, allows one to characterise a perturbative theoretical uncertainty in a rigorous way in terms of a credibility interval for the remainder of the series. We compare its outcome to the conventional uncertainty estimates in the simple case of the calculation of QCD corrections to the e+e- -> hadrons process. We find comparable results, but with important conceptual differences. This work represents a first step in the direction of a more comprehensive and rigorous handling of theoretical uncertainties in perturbative calculations used in high energy phenomenology.

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