Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Oct 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3519311m&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 19, CiteID L19311
Physics
Geophysics
2
Geodesy And Gravity: Seismic Cycle Related Deformations (6924, 7209, 7223, 7230), Nonlinear Geophysics: Complex Systems, Nonlinear Geophysics: Self-Organized Criticality, Seismology: Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction (1217, 1242)
Scientific paper
We examine the consistency of natural and model seismicity with the maximum entropy production hypothesis for open, slowly-driven, steady-state, dissipative systems. Assuming the commonly-observed power-law feedback between remote boundary stress and strain rate at steady state, several natural observations are explained by the system organizing to maximize entropy production in a near but strictly sub-critical state. These include the low but finite seismic efficiency and stress drop, an upper magnitude cut-off that is large but finite, and the universally- observed Gutenberg-Richter b-value of 1 in frequency-magnitude data. In this state the model stress field organizes into coherent domains, providing a physical mechanism for retaining a finite memory of past events. This implies a finite degree of predictability, strongly limited theoretically by the proximity to criticality and practically by the difficulty of directly observing Earth's stress field at an equivalent resolution.
Main Ian. G.
Naylor Mark
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