Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2004
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufm.p21a0211l&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #P21A-0211
Physics
5400 Planetology: Solid Surface Planets, 5407 Atmospheres: Evolution, 5416 Glaciation, 5450 Orbital And Rotational Dynamics, 6225 Mars
Scientific paper
It is the intent of this work to present a model which predicts the time when liquid water was present on Mars. Experimental evidence indicates that liquid water existed on the planet Mars at 2.9 - 3.4 billion years ago, when Mars was considered to be cold. A model is presented that predicts Mars orbit and temperature variations based on solar radiative and non-radiative (solar wind) mass losses which affect planetary orbits. Mars orbits are predicted between 198 and 206 million Km at its formation five billion years ago vs. presently 228 million Km. The correlation between the solar (radiative) constant and planetary orbit estimates the transition from liquid water to ice (273K) to have occurred at about 3.4-3.8 billion years before the present time, which is in good agreement with the experimental estimate (2.9 - 3.4 Byr). Additional effects that are expected to extend higher Mars surface temperatures closer to the present are discussed. Examples are the planetary cooling rate after formation and effects due to hothouse gases, like carbon dioxide and water vapor, and effects dependent on variations in solar volume.
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