Long-term variations in summer temperatures over the Eastern Mediterranean

Physics

Scientific paper

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Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620)

Scientific paper

The inter-annual variation of the 850 hPa temperatures over the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) for July-August was analyzed for 1948-2002, using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The time series of seasonal averages and the distribution of `hot' and `cool' days indicate the existence of three distinct warm periods. The warmest began in the mid-1990s. A long-term warming trend of 0.013 Ky-1 was found. The warming trend in July was 7 times greater than that of August, and July replaced August as the warmest month of the year. A trend of increasing extremity was also found. This was manifested in increasing seasonal standard deviation of daily temperatures, at a rate of 11% over 55 years, and in an increase in the frequency of both `hot' and `cool' days. These trends are also reflected in an increase in the seasonal maximum temperatures, which is 3 times greater than the increase in minimum temperatures.

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