Long-term persistence of solar activity

Details Long-term persistence of solar activity Long-term persistence of solar activity

Feb 1994

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1994soph..149..395r&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, vol. 149, no. 2, p. 395-403

Physics

25

Brownian Movements, Carbon 14, Dendrochronology, Maximum Entropy Method, Random Processes, Solar Activity, Sunspot Cycle, Time Series Analysis, White Noise, Annual Variations, Irradiance, Statistical Correlation, Strange Attractors

Scientific paper

We examine the question of whether or not the non-periodic variations in solar activity are caused by a white-noise, random process. The Hurst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series, is evaluated for the series of C-14 data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD. We find a constant Hurst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate, H approximately 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process and that it is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths.

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