Long-term Cosmic-ray Modulation during Solar Cycle 23

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics

Scientific paper

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Solar Cycle Variations, Sun Spots, Solar Cycles, Coronal Mass Ejection

Scientific paper

The long-term modulation of the current solar cycle 23 is of great interest, as this cycle is characterized by many peculiarities with double peaks. Many quiet periods (Gnevyshev gaps) are interrupted by extreme solar activity, as for example in April 2001, October-November 2003 and January 2005. Previous works proposed an empirical model to describe the long-term cosmic-ray intensity modulation during solar cycles 20, 21 and 22. In this work an attempt to apply this model to the solar cycle 23 is made analyzing monthly cosmic ray data from the Neutron Monitor Stations of Oulu (cut-off rigidity 0.81 GV) and Moscow (cut-off rigidity 2.42 GV). An empirical relation obtained from the linear combination of the sunspot number Rz, the solar flares Nf and the geomagnetic index Ap, is outlined incorporating the time-lag of these parameters against cosmic ray intensity. An extended study of the hysteresis phenomenon of cosmic ray intensity against different solar, interplanetary and terrestrial parameters during the time period 1996-2005 is also presented. This effect was found to have a high value, in average about 14 months, related to the size of the heliosphere and characterizing an odd solar cycle. Analytical modeling and numerical simulations are qualitatively consistent with experimental data. In our days a satisfied long-term cosmic ray model would be very useful for Space Weather studies given the possibility for cosmic-ray intensity prediction, especially now where these and satellite data are provided in real time to the Internet. A first evidence for the important role of coronal mass ejections to the long-term cosmic ray modulation is also discussed.

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