Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Jul 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3513705t&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 13, CiteID L13705
Physics
Geophysics
4
Hydrology: Drought, Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Regional Climate Change, Hydrology: Climate Impacts, History Of Geophysics: Atmospheric Sciences
Scientific paper
Anthropogenic climate change is projected to exacerbate midlatitude aridity. Here, we analyze newly developed multi-century tree-ring records for a long-term perspective on drought in Tunisia and Algeria. We use a new set of 13 Cedrus atlantica and Pinus halepensis chronologies with a strong signal for warm-season drought (May-August) to generate a robust, well-validated reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the period AD 1456-2002. Key features of the reconstruction reveal the magnitude of pre-instrumental droughts from the historic record. Remarkably, the most recent drought (1999-2002) appears to be the worst since at least the middle of the 15th century. This drought is consistent with the early signature of a transition to more arid midlatitude conditions, as projected by general circulation models.
Aloui Ali
Anchukaitis Kevin J.
Attalah Said
Baisan Christopher
Meko David M.
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