Linear and non-linear autoregression methods applied to the hourly cosmic ray records. I - Forbush decreases

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Autoregressive Processes, Forbush Decreases, Galactic Cosmic Rays, Radiant Flux Density, Earth Surface, Nucleons, Radiation Counters

Scientific paper

The application of autoregressive methods to temporal variations of the cosmic ray nucleonic component is presented. The set of hourly data, registered in Rome during the period 1977-1982 was examined. The results obtained by the analysis of the two Forbush decreases of February 14, 1978 and of July 10, 1982 are discussed applying both a linear and nonlinear model. During such nonstationary phenomena, a fairly good reconstruction of cosmic-ray intensity has been provided with the nonlinear method. In particular, it is found that, without the aid of external physical parameters, the decrease amplitude and the recovery phase has been well reconstructed, while the beginning of the events has not been predicted.

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