Limits in predicting the 11-year solar cycle modulation of radiation hazards to space exploration missions in the next century

Physics

Scientific paper

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Prediction Analysis Techniques, Radiation Hazards, Solar Cycles, Space Exploration, Sunspot Cycle, Galactic Cosmic Rays, Interplanetary Space, Radiant Flux Density

Scientific paper

The current limitations in predicting the solar cycle and the associated levels of solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) fluxes are discussed. It is indicated that there is little basis for attempting to predict the comparative levels of radiation from SPEs and GCRs for any particular year in the period 2010 to 2020. Alternative prediction capability, possibly through the utilization of physical models, may evolve from the development of objective methods of forecasting the durations of solar cycles.

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