Lagrangian least-squares prediction of solar flux (F-bar 10.7)

Details Lagrangian least-squares prediction of solar flux (F-bar 10.7) Lagrangian least-squares prediction of solar flux (F-bar 10.7)

Jan 1984

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1984jgr....89...11h&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research (ISSN 0148-0227), vol. 89, Jan. 1, 1984, p. 11-16.

Physics

17

Least Squares Method, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Flux, Statistical Analysis, Computer Programs, Regression Analysis, Sunspots

Scientific paper

The result of a study on the application of an improved statistical prediction method for estimating the intermediate-term (months) and long-term (years) behavior of solar flux is discussed. The study indicates that better predictions, in a chi square sense, are possible by selecting sets of the solar flux data such that each set (cycle) starts and ends at the maxima (or minima) for the data base and initialization point of the procedure. Then one applies a Lagrangian least-squares statistical technique. Evidence is also presented to support the existence of an aperiodic variation in the periods as well as the amplitudes.

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