Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Sep 2004
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004eostr..85..361t&link_type=abstract
EOS Transactions, AGU, Volume 85, Issue 38, p. 361-364
Physics
Geophysics
2
Global Change: Climate Dynamics (3309), Mathematical Geophysics: Nonlinear Dynamics, Mathematical Geophysics: General Or Miscellaneous
Scientific paper
Data analyses and model simulations have indicated that as the planet is warming, the chance for extreme events increases. Karl et al. [1995] examined precipitation records over the 20th century and showed that the high-frequency (up to interannual) variability has increased. Subsequently, Tsonis [1996] showed that the low-frequency variability has also increased. These variability trends indicate that the frequency of extremes (more drought events and more heavy precipitation events) has increased whereas the mean has remained approximately the same. Such a tendency is observed with other variables and is consistent with model projections of a warmer planet. A tendency for increased extremes is often translated as increased randomness, simply because the fluctuations increase. Strictly speaking, however, this is incorrect. An increase in the extremes affects the probability distribution of a random variable, but the variable is still random and thus is equally unpredictable. This is in agreement with the Chaitin-Kolmogorov-Solomonoff complexity definition of randomness. According to this definition, the degree of randomness of a given sequence is determined by the length of the computer program written to reproduce it. If the program involves as many steps as the length of the sequence, then the sequence is called maximally random. Random sequences generated from probability distributions are all equally maximally random because their values appear with no particular order or repetition, regardless of the form of the distribution. As such, to describe such sequences one must write a program that involves as many steps as the length of the sequence. It follows that changes in the degree of randomness cannot be assessed by changes in the probability distribution. Changes in the degree of randomness can only be probed by changes in the dynamical properties of a system with complex behavior. If the dynamics change, the system may become more (less) complex, which will imply that a longer (shorter) program will be needed to describe it.
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