Inferring the success parameter p of a binomial model from small samples affected by background

Physics – Data Analysis – Statistics and Probability

Scientific paper

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24 pages, 12 figures. This paper and related work are also available at http://www.roma1.infn.it/~dagos/prob+stat.html

Scientific paper

The problem of inferring the binomial parameter p from x successes obtained in n trials is reviewed and extended to take into account the presence of background, that can affect the data in two ways: a) fake successes are due to a background modeled as a Poisson process of known intensity; b) fake trials are due to a background modeled as a Poisson process of known intensity, each trial being characterized by a known success probability p_b.

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