Improving Uncertain Climate Forecasts Using a New Minimum Mean Square Error Estimator for the Mean of the Normal Distribution

Details Improving Uncertain Climate Forecasts Using a New Minimum Mean Square Error Estimator for the Mean of the Normal Distribution Improving Uncertain Climate Forecasts Using a New Minimum Mean Square Error Estimator for the Mean of the Normal Distribution

2009-12-22

arxiv.org/abs/0912.4395v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

When climate forecasts are highly uncertain, the optimal mean squared error strategy is to ignore them. When climate forecasts are highly certain, the optimal mean squared error strategy is to use them as is. In between these two extremes there are climate forecasts with an intermediate level of uncertainty for which the optimal mean squared error strategy is to make a compromise forecast. We present two new methods for making such compromise forecasts, and show, using simulations, that they improve on previously published methods.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Improving Uncertain Climate Forecasts Using a New Minimum Mean Square Error Estimator for the Mean of the Normal Distribution does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Improving Uncertain Climate Forecasts Using a New Minimum Mean Square Error Estimator for the Mean of the Normal Distribution, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Improving Uncertain Climate Forecasts Using a New Minimum Mean Square Error Estimator for the Mean of the Normal Distribution will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-307210