Physics
Scientific paper
Aug 2007
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007georl..3416504y&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 16, CiteID L16504
Physics
8
Cryosphere: Permafrost (0475), Cryosphere: Seasonally Frozen Ground, Cryosphere: Active Layer, Global Change: Cryospheric Change (0776), Global Change: Earth System Modeling (1225)
Scientific paper
Simulations of maximum annual thaw at a continuous and a discontinuous permafrost site in Canada were performed using Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3) and randomized historical climate records from these sites, superimposed with United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario of climate change. A positive trend in permafrost degradation was simulated for the 2000 to 2100 period in response to climate warming. Surface cover condition and soil properties play a dominant role in affecting ground thaw. In particular, a thin peat layer or surface organic cover can significantly buffer the permafrost against severe degradation. The occurrence of vegetation and extensive presence of a peat and organic layer in the circumpolar areas will modulate the regional impact of climate warming on permafrost thaw.
Arain Altaf M.
Woo Ming-ko
Yi Shuhua
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