Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the intraseasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Details Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the intraseasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the intraseasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Oct 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010georl..3719803l&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 37, Issue 19, CiteID L19803

Physics

1

Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: General Circulation (1223), Atmospheric Processes: Global Climate Models (1626, 4928), Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Meteorology, Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408)

Scientific paper

Using the output of the intraseasonal hindcast experiment conducted with the GEM global atmospheric model during 24 extended winters, the association between the forecast skill of the NAO and the amplitude and phase of the MJO in the initial condition is investigated. It is found that with a lead time up to about one month the NAO forecast skill is significantly influenced by the existence of the MJO signal in the initial condition. A strong MJO leads to a better NAO forecast skill than a weak MJO. An initial state with an MJO phase corresponding to a dipole tropical convection anomaly in the eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific favors a more skillful NAO forecast than an MJO phase with a single tropical convection anomaly near 120°E. These results indicate that it is possible to increase the skill of the NAO and the extratropical surface air temperature intraseasonal forecast with an improved tropical initialization, a better prediction of the tropical MJO and a better representation of the tropical-extratropical interaction in dynamical models.

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