Physics – Data Analysis – Statistics and Probability
Scientific paper
2006-09-21
Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 158702 (2007)
Physics
Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
4 pages, 3 figures
Scientific paper
Halting a computer or biological virus outbreak requires a detailed understanding of the timing of the interactions between susceptible and infected individuals. While current spreading models assume that users interact uniformly in time, following a Poisson process, a series of recent measurements indicate that the inter-contact time distribution is heavy tailed, corresponding to a temporally inhomogeneous bursty contact process. Here we show that the non-Poisson nature of the contact dynamics results in prevalence decay times significantly larger than predicted by the standard Poisson process based models. Our predictions are in agreement with the detailed time resolved prevalence data of computer viruses, which, according to virus bulletins, show a decay time close to a year, in contrast with the one day decay predicted by the standard Poisson process based models.
Andras Lukacs
Balazs Racz
Barabasi Albert-László
Vazquez Alexei
No associations
LandOfFree
Impact of non-Poisson activity patterns on spreading processes does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with Impact of non-Poisson activity patterns on spreading processes, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Impact of non-Poisson activity patterns on spreading processes will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-135272