Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Apr 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3307708d&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 7, CiteID L07708
Physics
Geophysics
11
Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic Forecasting (3238), Atmospheric Processes: Global Climate Models (1626, 4928), Paleoceanography: Greenhouse Gases
Scientific paper
A set of 44-year seasonal ensemble coupled model forecasts performed with annually updated greenhouse gas concentrations is compared to a standard seasonal ensemble forecast experiment performed with fixed concentrations. The former shows more realistic temperature variability and better forecast quality. The improvement in model variability is due to a better simulation of climate trends and suggests that realistic initial conditions are not enough to reproduce this long-term variability. The better probabilistic forecast quality is mostly due to the increased ability to reliably discriminate the occurrence of events and non-events. These results are relevant for the improvement of operational seasonal forecasts and provide new evidence of the effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition.
Doblas-Reyes Francisco J.
Hagedorn Renate
Morcrette Jean-Jacques
Palmer T. N.
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