Hybrid model for nowcasting and forecasting the K index

Physics

Scientific paper

Rate now

  [ 0.00 ] – not rated yet Voters 0   Comments 0

Details

1

Geomagnetic K Index, Empirical Modeling, Solar Wind-Based Model Of K, Nowcasting And Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity

Scientific paper

A new empirical model nowcasting and predicting a proxy to the geomagnetic K index is developed, which is based on the combined use of solar wind parameters and ground-based magnetic data. The present approach implements the previously developed solar wind-based MAK model, calibrating its values with magnetogram-derived K index. The new model is named as Hybrid Dourbes K (HDK) model. The HDK nowcast model provides the quantity Kdf, obtained by solar wind-based Ksw and corrected with a combination of differences between several past values of Kd and Ksw. The model error of the nowcast Kdf is found to be 0.38 KU, or nearly twice less than that of the MAK model. Kdf has a good predictability. Prediction made by weighted extrapolation 6 h ahead carries an error of 1.0 KU, while for the first 1 h the error is 0.58 KU only.

No associations

LandOfFree

Say what you really think

Search LandOfFree.com for scientists and scientific papers. Rate them and share your experience with other people.

Rating

Hybrid model for nowcasting and forecasting the K index does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Hybrid model for nowcasting and forecasting the K index, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Hybrid model for nowcasting and forecasting the K index will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

     

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1522893

  Search
All data on this website is collected from public sources. Our data reflects the most accurate information available at the time of publication.