Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Jul 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011georl..3813705w&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38, Issue 13, CiteID L13705
Physics
Geophysics
Biogeosciences: Climate Dynamics (1620), Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Mathematical Geophysics: Prediction (3245, 4263, 4315), Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic Forecasting (3238, 4315)
Scientific paper
Variations with initial time in the prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are analyzed based on the NCEP operational forecasts. It is found that the forecasted ENSO can be greatly affected by intraseasonal surface wind variability in the western Pacific (WPac), especially that associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In the model forecasts, Kelvin waves forced by intraseasonal winds in the WPac propagate eastward and reach the eastern Pacific in about 60 days, where the induced surface temperature (SST) anomalies dissipate and expand westward. Differences in the forecasted Nino3.4 SSTs can be 0.5 K or larger depending on the phase and amplitude of the MJO. Variations in WPac surface winds are also found to have impacts on the spread of the forecasted Nino3.4 SSTs. Relevance of these results to the ensemble strategies currently used in the operational climate prediction centers is discussed.
Chen Mingyue
Kumar Arun
Wang Wanqiu
Xue Yifeng
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