Half a billion years of good weather: Gaia or good luck?

Physics – Geophysics

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

For the past 550 million years, Earth has had a relatively stable climate, with average global temperatures generally fluctuating by less than 10°C from the present value of around 15°C. In the preceding 4 billion years, temperature fluctuations were almost an order of magnitude greater. One explanation for climate stability is that the biosphere evolves to maintain optimum conditions for life (the Gaia hypothesis). But this stability could also result from luck and, without such good fortune, conditions on Earth would have been unsuitable for the evolution of complex life: anthropic selection, in other words. One element of such good luck concerns the climatic impact of the Moon; the properties of the Earth-Moon system only just allow a stable rotation axis for the Earth (considered a prerequisite for climate stability and the evolution of complex life). Axial stability also requires Jupiter and Saturn to be widely spaced, offering a test of the rarity or otherwise of the solar system arrangement among exoplanet systems. Gravitational microlensing surveys should allow this to be tested within a decade.

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