Guaranteed accuracy of the orbit determination of Halley's comet

Physics

Scientific paper

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Error Analysis, Halley'S Comet, Orbit Calculation, Solar Orbits, Acceleration (Physics), Astronomical Models, Gas Giant Planets

Scientific paper

The maximum error in the orbit determination of Halley's comet, based on observations made during 1909-1911 and planned for 1985-1987, is estimated. The estimate is obtained with allowance for observation errors and parameters of the comet motion model, assuming the possibility of an arbitrary correlation between the errors noted, and taking into account specified constraints on the correlation. Maximum orbit-determination errors found in this way are minimized by the choice of an optimal estimation algorithm. An analysis is made of the dependence of the orbit-determination errors on the makeup of the observations used and on the errors of the parameters of the Marsden model of the nongravitational acceleration of the comet.

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