Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 1991
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1991stin...9228869a&link_type=abstract
Unknown
Physics
Atmospheric Density, Forecasting, Orbit Calculation, Satellite Orbits, Solar Flux, Solar X-Rays, Statistical Analysis, Stellar Models, Ultraviolet Emission, Mathematical Models, Nonlinearity
Scientific paper
The results of comparisons of the solar flux models are presented. (The wavelength lambda = 10.7 cm radio flux is the best indicator of the strength of the ionizing radiations such as solar ultraviolet and x-ray emissions that directly affect the atmospheric density thereby changing the orbit lifetime of satellites. Thus, accurate forecasting of solar flux F10.7 is crucial for orbit determination of spacecrafts.) The measured solar flux recorded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is compared against the forecasts made by Schatten, MSFC, and NOAA itself. The possibility of a combined linear, unbiased minimum-variance estimation that properly combines all three models into one that minimizes the variance is also discussed. All the physics inherent in each model are combined. This is considered to be the dead-end statistical approach to solar flux forecasting before any nonlinear chaotic approach.
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