Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Jan 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002iaf..confe.735s&link_type=abstract
IAF abstracts, 34th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, The Second World Space Congress, held 10-19 October, 2002 in Houston, TX, USA.,
Mathematics
Logic
Scientific paper
This paper assesses the value of Space Solar Power deployed under market competition with a full suite of alternative energy technologies over the 21st century. Our approach is to analyze the future energy system under a number of different scenarios that span a wide range of possible future demographic, socio-economic, and technological developments. Scenarios both with, and without, carbon dioxide concentration stabilization policies are considered. We use the comprehensive set of scenarios created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000). The focus of our analysis will be the cost of electric generation. Cost is particularly important when considering electric generation since the type of generation is, from a practical point of view, largely irrelevant to the end-user. This means that different electricity generation technologies must compete on the basis of price. It is important to note, however, that even a technology that is more expensive than average can contribute to the overall generation mix due to geographical and economic heterogeneity (Clarke and Edmonds 1993). This type of competition is a central assumption of the modeling approach used here. Our analysis suggests that, under conditions of full competition of all available technologies, Space Solar Power at 7 cents per kW-hr could comprise 5-10% of global electric generation by the end of the century, with a global total generation of 10,000 TW-hr. The generation share of Space Solar Power is limited due to competition with lower-cost nuclear, biomass, and terrestrial solar PV and wind. The imposition of a carbon constraint does not significantly increase the total amount of power generated by Space Solar Power in cases where a full range of advanced electric generation technologies are also available. Potential constraints on the availability of these other electric generation options can increase the amount of electricity generated by Space Solar Power. In agreement with previous work on this subject, we note that launch costs are a significant impediment for the widespread implementation of Space Solar Power. KEY WORDS: space satellite power, advanced electric generation, electricity price, climate change
Clarke Frank J. J.
Edmonds Jeffrey A.
Mahasenan Natesan
Smith Stephen J.
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