Future estimates of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing and methane turnover-the impact of climate change

Details Future estimates of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing and methane turnover-the impact of climate change Future estimates of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing and methane turnover-the impact of climate change

Jul 2000

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2000georl..27.2073s&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 27, Issue 14, p. 2073-2076

Physics

37

Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Troposphere-Composition And Chemistry, Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Troposphere-Constituent Transport And Chemistry, Global Change: Atmosphere, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Radiative Processes

Scientific paper

We present a range of estimates for future radiative forcings due to changes in tropospheric ozone (O3T). Ozone distributions were generated by the UKMO 3-D chemistry-transport model for 1990, 2030, 2060, and 2100, using four sets of boundary conditions. Anthropogenic emissions evolved following either the IPCC SRES ``high'' (A2) or ``central'' (B2) case. Each scenario was run with both a fixed (1990) climate, and with a changing climate, as generated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, forced with IS92a emissions. Calculated global mean O3T radiative forcings for the A2 (B2) cases for 1990-2100 were +0.43 (+0.22) Wm-2 when climate change was ignored; these fell to +0.27 (+0.09) Wm-2 when climate change was included. Without climate change, CH4 lifetimes (τCH4) lengthened by 7-12 % between 1990 and 2100; however, when climate change was included, τCH4 fell by 0-5 %. Hence climate warming exerts a negative feedback on itself by enhancing O3T and CH4 destruction.

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